Current trend state
Confirmed trend
Sep 11, 2026 · same rules as the crisis replay.
American Market Stress Monitor
Volatility, credit, trend, and momentum.
MSI · MARKET STRESS INDEX
Low
Volatility pricing. Price damage. Negative momentum.
Experimental · forward-warning test not passed
9.3/100
-0.4 vs. prior observation
0 · Low100 · Severe
CONTRIBUTIONS points
Volatility6.5 / 40
Price deterioration1.3 / 35
Negative momentum1.4 / 25
VIX 15.84VIX3M 18.60S&P 500 7,656.98Inputs share the score date below.
Sep 11, 2026 · MSI-1.0 · 5-observation EMAStress intensity, not crash probability.
Saved research snapshot. Checking for newer published observations.
Stress breadth · 4 conditions
0 / 4
Low observed stress
Cboe Volatility Index
Price location
-1.82%
From the trailing 252-session closing high. Near a past high does not prove a future top.
Recovery condition
Not active
Requires a recent major drawdown, five closes above SMA50, and positive 20-session momentum.
Daily indicators
| Indicator | Value | Reading | Observation date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.84 | Below trigger | Sep 11, 2026 | Cboe ↗ | |
| 0.85 | Upward slope | Sep 11, 2026 | Cboe; dashboard calculation ↗ | |
| 18.60 | Context | Sep 11, 2026 | Cboe ↗ | |
| 91.28 | Context | Sep 11, 2026 | Cboe ↗ | |
| 154.49 | Context | Sep 11, 2026 | Cboe ↗ | |
| 265 | Below 500 bp | Sep 11, 2026 | ICE Data Indices via FRED ↗ | |
| 7,656.98 | Context | Sep 11, 2026 | S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED ↗ | |
| 6.90 | Above average | Sep 11, 2026 | Dashboard calculation on FRED SP500 ↗ | |
| -1.82 | Within 10% of high | Sep 11, 2026 | Dashboard calculation on FRED SP500 ↗ | |
| 3.55 | Positive | Sep 11, 2026 | Dashboard calculation on FRED SP500 ↗ | |
| 18.62 | Positive | Sep 11, 2026 | Dashboard calculation on FRED SP500 ↗ | |
| 8.99 | Context | Sep 11, 2026 | Dashboard calculation on FRED SP500 ↗ |
Weekly financial conditions
| Indicator | Value | Reading | Observation date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.56 | Below average stress | Sep 4, 2026 | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED ↗ | |
| -0.79 | Below average stress | Sep 4, 2026 | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ↗ |
Near a high ≠ a market top
The 252-session drawdown gives price location. It cannot establish that the next move will be lower.
High fear ≠ a market bottom
In 2008, the VIX closing peak came before the S&P 500 trough. Prices could fall further even as VIX eased.
Momentum needs confirmation
A recovery watch describes improving prices. The replay keeps failed recoveries and delayed trend signals visible.